DNA and The Butterfly Effect

Would law enforcement be able to use genetic databases like GedMatch to solve crimes if Ancestry had provided a chromosome browser to their customers?

The CEO of Ancestry this week cautioned that consumers need to be careful about the companies with whom we share our DNA. She pointed out that Ancestry has the highest standards around privacy and does not cooperate with law enforcement.

I almost fell off my chair laughing. In another post I'll explain how Ancestry reduced privacy options recently in a way that has me highly concerned and caused me to unlink several DNA tests from my tree.

The CEO's statement made me think also about cause and effect.

If Ancestry had provided a chromosome browser, they would have been able to serve their customers who want hard science in addition to warm fuzzy feelings. We would not have needed to turn to GedMatch and other companies for this service.

Additionally, if Ancestry had accepted DNA uploads from other companies, they could have provided cross-company matching and captured a larger share of the market. Instead they ceded this market to GedMatch and now to other companies.

I did a (non-scientific) check of my top 3000 matches on GedMatch. A full 50 percent of my matches were from Ancestry. And my family and I have better privacy on GedMatch than on Ancestry, which is a story for another day.

My opinion is that Ancestry's choices have been an important cause of the growth of GedMatch. I'm personally on the fence about law enforcement using genetic databases. However, I also think Ancestry needs to own its part in the situation, rather than denigrate companies that fill gaps in Ancestry's DNA offering.

So I ponder if the Golden State Killer was caught thanks to a long-ago decision made by Ancestry. Was it cause and effect?